Shell-Studie: Solarstrom größte Energiequelle der Zukunft
Die vom Mineralölkonzern Royal Dutch Shell PLC finanzierte Studie New Lense Scenario prognostiziert, Solarstrom könnte bis etwa 2065 weltweit zur größten Energiequelle werden. Die Studie rechnet zwei Zukunftsszenarien durch. Im ersten geht Shell davon aus, dass höhere Energiepreise, niedrigere Photovoltaikkosten und staatliche Unterstützung dazu führen werden, dass PV bis 2040 von der aktuell 13. Position zur viertwichtigsten Energiequelle weltweit werden wird – hinter Öl, Gas und Kohle. 2060 würde Photovoltaik dann nahezu 40 Prozent der weltweit produzierten Energie liefern und damit die Spitzenposition einnehmen. Die global installierte PV-Leistung könnte Shell zufolge bis 2020 rund 500 Gigawatt erreichen, bis 2050 rechnet die Studie mit bis zu 20.000 Gigawatt.
Im zweiten Szenario spielt Erdgas die Hauptrolle bei der Energieversorgung der Zukunft. Shell ist jedoch skeptisch, ob eine Energieversorgung zu 100 Prozent aus erneuerbaren Energien möglich sein wird.
Aus der englischen Pressemitteilung:
With the world’s population headed toward 9 billion at mid-century and millions of people climbing out of poverty, global energy demand could increase by as much as 80% by 2050. That’s according to Shell’s latest scenarios, which look at trends in the economy, politics and energy in considering developments over the next half a century. What might lie ahead 50 years from now… or even in 2100? We consider two possible scenarios of the future, taking a number of pressing global trends and issues and using them as “lenses” through which to view the world.
The scenarios provide a detailed analysis of current trends and their likely trajectory into the future. They dive into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The scenarios also highlight areas of public policy likely to have the greatest influence on the development of cleaner fuels, improvements in energy efficiency and on moderating greenhouse gas emissions.
Mountains
The first scenario, labelled “mountains”, sees a strong role for government and the introduction of firm and far-reaching policy measures. These help to develop more compact cities and transform the global transport network. New policies unlock plentiful natural gas resources – making it the largest global energy source by the 2030s – and accelerate carbon capture and storage technology, supporting a cleaner energy system.
Oceans
The second scenario, which we call “oceans”, describes a more prosperous and volatile world. Energy demand surges, due to strong economic growth. Power is more widely distributed and governments take longer to agree major decisions. Market forces rather than policies shape the energy system: oil and coal remain part of the energy mix but renewable energy also grows. By the 2060s solar becomes the world’s largest energy source.
->Quelle: shell.com; s03.static-shell.com